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Rumors of Your Dementia Risk Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Photo by Joseph Corl on Unsplash

You may be forgiven for believing in the inevitability of dementia in your future. News media have done well what they do best, which is cranking the Anxiety volume up to 11. With predictable results: In the United Kingdom, a study last year by the Alzheimer’s Society found that 62% of the populace believe an Alzheimer’s diagnosis would mean their life is over. More than half the respondents said they had put off a dementia diagnosis for up to a year or more.

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But since, as President Franklin Roosevelt famously remarked, “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself,” let’s examine closely to see if these fears are justified.

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News media have been quick to point out that dementia cases are rising. A recent study led by Josef Coresh at NYU Langone Health predicted a sharp increase in cases over the next three decades. (Other dementia Experts agree the number of cases will rise but challenge that projection.) But that is only half of the story. The number of cases is rising because the number of older adults is rising. And the highest risk factor for dementia is getting older.

On the other hand, the rate of dementia has been falling. In each age cohort, the percentage of adults who are stricken by dementia is declining and has been declining for 40 years, according to researchers at Duke University. From its own long-term study of older adults, they found that for adults born in 1905, 23% contracted dementia. In adults born 10 years later, the proportion dropped to 18%. Of Americans born in 1935, 11% had dementia by their late 80s. The projection for those born between 1945 and 1949 is 8%.

Put it another way: if you live into your late 80s, your odds of getting dementia are about 1 in 12.

Feeling a little better?

(Reality check: If you live into your 90s, your odds fall to 1 in 3. Still, that’s after 90+ years with a sound mind – and you’re still a 2:1 favorite to beat it!)

But Is It Normal?

Let’s talk about the burning question that is front-of-mind for me and many of my friends: Is my most recent lapse normal for my age or the first sign of dementia?

The UK’s Alzheimer’s Society suggests this guideline: “If a problem is mildly annoying but doesn’t affect your ability to do things in everyday life, then it’s unlikely to be a sign of dementia.” Specifically, these are incidents you can probably put in the “not to worry” category:

  • forgetting names

  • taking longer to absorb new information

  • misplacing your keys or glasses or phone

  • missing the occasional appointment

  • struggling to find the right word in a conversation

  • frustration with new Technology such as apps and smart devices

  • needing longer to think things through.

However, these symptoms suggest it’s time to see a doctor:

  • Loss of memory, poor judgment, confusion

  • Difficulty speaking or reading and writing

  • Wandering and getting lost in a familiar setting

  • Difficulty handling Money responsibly and paying bills

  • Repeating questions

  • Hallucinating or experiencing delusions or paranoia

  • Acting impulsively

You Decide

Meanwhile, there is quite a bit you can do to lower your risk of dementia. Studies have found 14 modifiable risk factors that are entirely within our control. Scientists believe addressing these risk factors can lower dementia risks by as much as 50%.

And there’s one more factor to address: fear of dementia itself. Yes, a fear of dementia that turns into Stress and anxiety can actually increase the risk of developing dementia.

So take FDR’s words of reassurance seriously. Don’t waste any precious brain cells worrying about a fate that is far from inevitable, despite what you see and hear.

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The EndGame is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Don Akchin Publisher/Podcaster at The EndGame

Don Akchin is a recovering journalist who publishes a weekly newsletter and biweekly podcast called The EndGame, which encourages "chronologically gifted" baby boomers to live their later years with joy and purpose. In his former life he wrote for magazines, newspapers, colleges and universities, and nonprofit organizations.

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