by Bob Gatty

If Donald Trump and his Republican butt kissers could do any more to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, I’d like to know what it is.

This post just hit my inbox this evening and I thought I’d pass it along, hoping to lighten your mood. It sure made me feel a lot better. Check this out from Josh Barton at Oddspr.com:

The news cycle could hardly be worse for Donald Trump, J.D. Vance and the Republican Party.

Their domestic poll numbers are dismal as a war that continues to lose public support drags on. Trump is also facing criticism for sharing an AI-generated image of himself as Jesus—a move that could alienate a key GOP voting bloc.

As a result, odds across BetOnline’s political markets are shifting sharply against the Republicans.

First, Democrats’ odds of winning the Senate have their greatest chances at -140 odds. They are now strong favorites in four currently red states, enough to secure a 51–49 majority. Most critically, significant market moves have been seen in Ohio and Alaska.

In the race for the 2028 presidency, Vance has been overtaken as the favorite by Democratic frontrunner Gavin Newsom. The Democrats now hold six of the Top 10 spots on BetOnline’s list.

Finally, Trump’s odds of completing his full term have dropped to just -150…a historic low for an incumbent president. With growing speculation about his Health and the potential invocation of the 25th Amendment, he is now only a +300 chance to leave office in 2026.

Given that Democrats are overwhelmingly likely to win the House, a third impeachment is now a -350 likelihood. More immediately, the over/under line for his approval rating on May 1st has hit an all-time low of 38.5%.

Here’s the Breakdown

2028 US Presidential Election Winner

Gavin Newsom              +350

J.D. Vance                     +375

Marco Rubio                 +700

1. Ocasio-Cortez            +1400

Kamala Harris                +1800

Jon Ossoff                     +1800

Mark Kelly                    +2000

Josh Shapiro                 +2200

Donald Trump               +2800

Tucker Carlson              +2800

Senate Control

Democrats        -140

Republicans      +110

Maine Senate

Democrats        -600 (was -350)

Republicans      +350

Ohio Senate

Democrats        -200 (was -130)

Republicans      +150

Alaska Senate

Democrats        -250 (was -120)

Republicans      +170

Trump Exit Date

2026     +300

2027     +350

2028     +650

2029     -150

Trump Approval Rating on May 1st

Over/Under      38.5

Trump to Be Impeached Before End of Term

Yes       -350

No        +225

U.S. politics odds can be seen here: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/us-election

To Recap

The Trump ‘Jesus’ Pic

Barton’s statement that Trump generating that picture of himself as Jesus laying hands and supposedly healing a man who looks suspiciously like his late pedophile buddy, Jeffrey Epstein, “could alienate a key voting bloc,” is perhaps the understatement of the year. He’s alienated at least two HUGE voting blocs — Catholics, who don’t like his nasty attack on Pope Leo — and conservative Christian fundamentalists like conservative commentator Megyn Kelly, who called his picture “blasphemous.”

“It’s completely inappropriate and he knows it,” Kelly said. She was joined by wacko former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who accused Trump of “blasphemy.”

What was the dullard Trump thinking?

Then, because of the backlash, he removed the post and said he wasn’t portrayed as Jesus, but rather as a Red Cross doctor healing someone. When’s the last time you saw a doctor wearing a red sash lay their hands on a patient to heal them?

Trump’s War on Iran

All of that came as Trump scrambles to extricate himself from the mess he created attacking Iran and threatening to destroy a generation. His not-forgotten promise to bring gasoline prices to below $2 per gallon is now in the toilet, since gas prices are now near $4 per gallon or more in many places, and his stupid blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is only making it worse. Even China warns that the move is “dangerous.”

And gas prices are just the beginning, as energy costs affect a massive portion of the Economy, including groceries, which already have seen HUGE price increases because of his brilliant imposition of tariffs.

And what are his Republican sycophants in Congress doing about this? Not a freaking thing.

EPSTEIN. EPSTEIN. EPSTEIN

Meanwhile, hooker First Lady, Melania held a press briefing the other day to tell everyone she hardly knew Epstein and was not one of his victims. Then, she called for a Congressional hearing into the affair, obviously realizing her creep of a husband is all over those files. Just what Trump needed. He started what could end up being World War III to distract us from the Epstein scandal, which ultimately could result in the end of his presidency. So she brought that right back to the top of the news.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, so to speak.

Legal & Administrative Hurdles

A federal appeals court halted a contempt investigation against the administration regarding illegal deportation flights to El Salvador. In another case, a judge dismissed but allowed for a refiling of a defamation lawsuit brought by Trump against the Wall Street Journal.

Mental Health Debate

All of this, combined with his erratic behavior, like staying up all night sending out crazy Truths from his own social media platform, have prompted renewed concern about his mental health, along with calls for impeachment or imposition of the 25th Amendment. Oh, and don’t forget his drive-by of the site on the Mall where he wants his own massive Arc de Trump to be built, his desecration of the White House for his HUGE ballroom, and his sticking his name on the Kennedy Center, which he’s closed for two years to make way for unneeded renovations. Could it be that he doesn’t like that nobody was buying tickets after he took over so he’s just shutting the place down?

The Odds

So, now we have these new odds reported above: California Gov. Gavin Newsom leading Vice President J.D. Vance in the presidential sweepstakes, the Democrats now having a real shot at taking over both houses of Congress, and increasing odds he will be impeached before the end of his term.

Best news I’ve heard in a long time. What do you think?

The post Trump’s Chaos Is Catching Up: Polls Drop, Allies Crack, and the Odds Turn Against Him appeared first on Lean to the Left.

Bob Gatty Author, Podcaster, Blogger

For many years, Bob Gatty worked as a writer, editor, and communications consultant, based on the Washington, DC area with a focus on government and politics. He began at The Pittsburgh Courier, an African American weekly, covering crime and the courts. His salary was $55 per week before moving on to two local Pennsylvania dailies. At age 24, he began reporting for United Press International covering state politics in Pennsylvania and then New Jersey, where he was UPI’s state capitol bureau in Trenton.

Tempted by the allure of Washington, DC and big-time politics, at age 29 Bob became press secretary and chief of staff for two Congressmen – first Republican Edwin B. Forsythe, and then Democrat James J. Florio, who later became governor of New Jersey and until his recent death was a frequent podcast guest and co-host of Bob’s NFN Radio News podcast (now called Lean to the Left).

After seven years on Capitol Hill, Bob opened a communications business in Washington, first providing political media consulting to candidates and then freelance Washington coverage for business and trade magazines, plus creative communications services for trade and professional associations, including social media. This work involved articles and analyses of key governmental developments affecting businesses, such as the food and Health industries, retailing, and the environment.

His work as a communications consultant to trade and professional associations included launching and editing association publications, providing website content and social media assistance, and covering conferences and conventions.

Bob retired from G-Net Strategic Communications in 2016 and moved to Myrtle Beach, SC, where he launched his blog site, first called Not Fake News, now known as Lean to the Left.

Hijacked Nation
In August, 2020, Bob and co-author Chris Waldron, one of Lean to the Left's most loyal and prolific contributor, published "Hijacked Nation-Donald Trump's Attack on America's Greatness," a two-volume compilation of blogs regarding Trump's presidency and the consequences for our nation. A followup volume was published by Luna Global Media in September 2024. It is available at https://amzn.to/4ePrTF7 .

In all three volumes, blogs from Not Fake News and Lean to the Left create a virtual play-by-play of key actions of the Trump administration and Congress. For more information, please visit https://leantotheleft.net/books/, and visit Bob's Author's Page on Amazon, https://www.amazon.com/stores/Bob-Gatty/author/B08C7HWXZ5?ref=ap_rdr&isDramIntegrated=true&shoppingPortalEnabled=true&ccs_id=4e603563-7251-4074-b54d-40800c4ce40a.

The Lean to the Left Podcast
The Lean to the Left podcast provides commentary and interviews with newsmakers and others with interesting stories to tell. Video and audio podcasts stream twice weekly on major channels. More info at https://podcast.leantotheleft.net.

The Lean to the Left YouTube Channel
You'll find all of the audio tracks for the Lean to the Left Podcast here plus original videos, including complete video versions of each podcast.
https://www.youtube.com/@LeantotheLeft.