Image by TSD Studio for Unsplash+
At times I feel that whatever I am going through, I am going through it alone. If you feel that way sometimes, perhaps you will be encouraged to know that you are part of a global movement. In fact, you’re a trendsetter! You stand on the leading edge of a demographic wave that is impacting the world in new and unpredictable ways.
Yes, we stand on the leading edge of worldwide population Aging.
When the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its World Economic Outlook report in April, it included an entire chapter on the global implications of population aging. It is a phenomenon happening not just in the U.S. but in all major advanced economies, and in many Third World nations.
Two things are happening at once. On one hand, older adults are living longer. On the other hand, birth rates are falling. Together, they mean a future reduction in the number of people in the traditional working years (ages 18 to 65) and an overall slowdown in population Growth.
For those concerned about the fate of the planet, a slowdown in growth seems like a good thing. The global population stands at 8.2 billion as of a few minutes ago – up from 6 billion just 25 years ago.
But from an economic perspective – which is the IMF lens – this is troublesome. “The fall in the proportion of working-age individuals may depress labor supply and output growth,” the report says. In addition, the ratio of workers to retirees “can strain public Pension systems and increase Health care spending.”
The report does have some good news about aging. Not only are we living longer, we are also living in better physical and Mental Health. “Data from a sample of 41 advanced and emerging market economies indicate that, on average, a person who was 70 in 2022 had the same cognitive ability as a 53-year-old in 2000,” it notes. To the authors of the report, these trends mean that nations can partly counteract slow growth by encouraging their healthy older adults to work for more years and delay Retirement. It suggests nations consider “a multifaceted policy approach [to] increase labor supply, boost growth, and ease fiscal pressures amid global population aging.”
What should we make of all this – aside from observing that economics is called “the dismal science” for a good reason?
I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about the impact of aging on the wealth of nations, but I do spend a lot of time thinking about the impact of aging on me, and on what I am supposed to be doing about it. I am not always sure of the answer. But after reading the IMF report, it occurs to me that nobody else is sure either.
The fact is that the baby boom generation (not for the first time), Gen X, and the generations who follow us are facing a world that has never been experienced before. For the first time ever, there may be more older adults than children. It is probable, even likely, that millions of us will live into our 90s in relatively good health, and with the better part of our brains intact. The world isn’t prepared for us to keep working. Retirement may or may not be affordable. Yet no generation before us has had so many years of good health to look forward to, with the freedom to make the best use of it as we see fit.
We are the pioneers, the first to set foot on this new uncharted territory. It’s no use looking for rules. There aren’t any. It’s up to us to figure them out on our own.
Should we work longer? Should we retire? Should we “unretire” with part-time work and part-time Volunteering? Should we rewire? No one can tell us. It is in our hands.
If that’s an exhilarating prospect, go for it. If that’s a scary prospect, that’s also a reasonable reaction.
But don’t believe any Experts who tell you what you’re supposed to do. They don’t know. They’ve never done this either.
Good luck, pilgrim. Nobody said it was going to be easy out here on the frontier!
