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Timing the Market vs. Following the Trend: What Actually Works

  1. Timing the Market vs. Following the Trend: What Actually Works Adam Koos 24:55

In this episode of The Retirement Fiduciary Podcast, host Adam Koós takes the guest seat on The Aligned Money Show with George G. The conversation blends financial insight with personal backstory as Adam opens up about his unexpected past in music, his path to becoming a Chartered Market Technician, and the investment strategies he uses today to help clients protect and grow their wealth.

This episode covers everything from election-season uncertainty to the pros and cons of trend following, what most people misunderstand about timing the market, and why building the right portfolio is the key to sticking with your plan.

Whether you’re a retiree, a pre-retiree, or someone just looking for a better way to manage risk in today’s market, this episode offers candid advice and a reminder that real financial planning is more than just picking investments.

Episode Timestamps:

01:00 – Two Truths and a Lie: Adam’s Singing Past Revealed 05:30 – What’s Top of Mind: Markets, Elections, and Uncertainty 07:30 – Should You Wait to Invest Until After the Election? 10:00 – Adam’s Approach to Market Volatility and Trend Following 13:00 – Tactical vs. Strategic Models: Why Adam Uses Both 16:00 – Analogies That Help Clients Understand Complex Strategies 18:00 – Recency Bias and Why Portfolios Fail 20:00 – U.S. Debt, GDP, and Economic Outlook 22:00 – The #1 Retirement Planning Tip Most People Ignore 23:00 – Where to Find a Fiduciary Advisor

Key Takeaways:

🔹 Trend Following Is Not Timing: It’s not about predicting the market—it’s about following patterns and adjusting when they change.🔹 Election Uncertainty Is Normal: Markets don’t care who wins. They care about knowing who wins.🔹 Diversification Alone Isn’t Enough: Combining buy-and-hold with tactical models can protect against major downturns.🔹 Analogies Help: Whether it’s tornado sirens, playoff teams, or March Madness—clear comparisons make financial strategies easier to grasp.🔹 Don’t Delay Planning: Most people don’t create a financial plan until age 52. That’s too late. Start now.🔹 Voice of the Market > Opinions: Markets don’t care what you think. They respond to data, not feelings.🔹 Crystal Balls Don’t Work: Be honest with clients. No one can predict the future—but you can prepare for it.

Key Quotes from Adam Koós:

🗣 “Markets don’t care who wins elections—they care about the uncertainty before we know who wins.”🗣 “Every seven tornado sirens, one touches down. That’s why you still go to the basement.”🗣 “People don’t abandon their plan because of a bad advisor—they abandon it because they’re in the wrong portfolio.”🗣 “I’ve got a crystal ball on my desk—but it doesn’t work.”🗣 “Planning isn’t just for wealthy people. It’s for anyone who doesn’t want to hope their retirement works out.”

 

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Adam Koós Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CEPA

Adam’s professional journey began just 10 days before the tragic attack on the World Trade Center in 2001. This timing allowed him to guide his clients through four of the worst market crashes in U.S. history.

He holds several high-ranking certifications, such as the Certified Financial Planner® (CFP), Chartered Market Technician® (CMT), Certified Financial Technician (CFTe), and Certified Exit Planning Advisor (CEPA). He’s also been recognized locally and nationally in publications such as The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Investopedia, Seeking Alpha, FA Magazine, and Proactive Advisor Magazine, just to name a few.

At Libertas Wealth Management Group, Adam utilizes his expertise, focusing on two main areas:

Career professionals who have an interest in utilizing a variety of retirement, tax, insurance, and estate planning tools to make work optional — and stay retired.

Business owners and CEOs interested in transitioning their businesses into more profitable, efficient, and lifestyle-friendly companies with plans to eventually (or immediately) exit, and…

In addition to his financial advisory role, Adam is an accomplished speaker, writer, and educator. He regularly contributes to numerous financial publications and offers financial planning classes and workshops. His dedication to sharing knowledge stems from his family’s background in teaching.

Through these endeavors, Adam continues to make a significant impact on the lives of others, fulfilling the vision he nurtured from a young age, watching his father and absorbing the lessons he was taught about attitude and ethics, and using his knowledge to provide authentic advice, treating clients as if they were his own family.